By Homer Smith

It is 4th-down on your 2-foot line, near the end of the 2nd or the 4th quarter. It is not the end-of-game situation where you would have to try to make the yardage needed. You must either take a safety or punt. If you punt, you figure that a field goal will be kicked against you. How do you compare minus two with minus three?

At some point-differences, minus two means that either you will need more driving (for points) or your opponent will need less. For example, to go from –2 to –4 means that you take on the need for a touchdown drive, rather than just a field goal drive; and, to go from +4 to +2 means that your opponent is relieved of the need for a touchdown drive and can win with a field goal drive. So, in points needed by the team that is left behind, taking a safety and punting can be equitable.

As you process in your gut the possible necessities of

1. getting a punt off and covering
2. holding the opponent to a field goal
3. free-kicking and covering
4. keeping the opponent out of field goal range

as you try to get a reliable gut feeling, how does time-remaining affect you?

If you are behind and will need to drive, time is not a factor. You should get the ball on about your own 20, whether (a) you safety kick and the opponent runs three plays before punting or (b) you punt, the opponent runs three plays before kicking a field goal, and then kicks off to you.

But, if the opponent is behind, time is a factor. It will take him longer after your minus three than it will after your minus two. So, the more time the opponent has, the more you want to consider punting … the more time he has the more you want to have that segment where you will have the ball and can bleed the clock. The less time he has to drive after a safety kick by you, the more you want to take a safety, because it is safer.

Whatever you do, you are gambling. If you take a safety, you are gambling on the opponent running out of time. If you punt, you are gambling on getting the punt off and, then, holding the opponent to a field goal. Again, you probably want to take a safety if time is on your side but punt if it is not.

The message here is twofold:

1. That certain point-differences equate minus-two and minus-three and
2. That time-remaining can influence what you do.

(Examples of differences that do not equate are –6 to –8 or –9 and +11 to +9 or +8.)