What it takes to Win – The “Seven Game Maxims”

General Robert Neyland first introduced the “Seven Game Maxims” to his University of Tennessee Volunteer football team in the 1930’s and many high schools and colleges are still using them seventy years later. Restated over and over throughout the season as a method of reminding players what they have to do to win, they are:

1. The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.
2. Play for and make the breaks. When one comes your way, score.
3. If at first the breaks or the game go against you, don’t let up. Put on more steam.
4. Protect your kicker, your quarterback, and your lead.
5. Oskie. Aggressively pursue the ball and yell “Oskie” when you intercept it. Block and tackle for this the winning edge.
6. Press the kicking game for it is here that the breaks are made.
7. Carry the fight to your opponent and leave it there for the whole game.

The following article chronicles a statistical analysis that was recently performed on Tampa Bay area high school football results from the 2002 season. The results for all games combined and a specific game as well are then compared to these seven maxims. The results speak for themselves.

This article was written by Jim Reese, a former HS and College player and coach and was published recently in a Tampa Bay Newspaper.

Tampa Bay, Florida

If you want to have a winning high school football team in Tampa Bay this year, you should do the following:

1. Forget about the home field advantage. An examination of 314 high school games played by teams last year showed that the home team won only 49.7% of the time.
2. Score first. The team scoring first went on to win 78% of the time. The team getting the first two scores won 96% of the time.
3. Work on defense and special teams. 152 touchdowns came off kick-off, punt, interception, and fumble returns in 2002. The team doing the returning won 81.5% of those games.
4. Tell your coach to have a great half-time speech ready. Of the 314 games analyzed, 21 were tied at half time. Of the remaining 293 games, the team ahead at the half won 91.5% of the games. Hillsborough teams up at the half won 93% of the time, Pinellas teams won 89%, and the North Suncoast elevens ahead at half time ended up winning 95% of the time. A random sampling of a similar number of NFL games in 2002 saw the team leading at the half winning 66% of the games, while in NCAA Div. I-A, the number was 73%.

Jesuit High School in 2002 provided a good case study in what it takes to be a winning team. Stressing a running game, the Tigers ran 81% of the time for a healthy 3.6 average, yet completed only 39% of their passes. However, with losing just three fumbles and throwing only one interception all year, their favorable take-away ratio of nearly five to one carried them to an 8-1 regular season record and the Class 3A, District 8 championship.

In their game against Blake, the Tigers scored only 14 points, half their seasonal game average, but they were able to hold on to win. In that game, Jesuit out punted their opponent by an average of 15 yards per kick, took advantage of a poor Blake punt to set up a score, and intercepted a Yellow Jacket pass in the end zone on the last play of the game. Blake out gained Jesuit nearly two to one that day (238-133) but was called for twelve penalties to Jesuit’s five. Playing Jesuit (5-1) at that time, Blake, then 3-4, missed a golden opportunity to get to .500 and close the season with a great deal of momentum.

Mistakes (Fumbles and interceptions)

The old rule that the team making the fewest mistakes wins held up through the 2002 season. The six teams from Hillsborough in the final Tampa Bay Top 10 in 2002 averaged +18 in turn over ratio compared to the county’s six poorest teams at -9.5. While Wharton (9-1) had twice as many take-aways as their opponents, Blake (3-7) ended up minus 1 in that department. Eliminate some of those Yellow Jacket fumbles and interceptions and Blake might very well have been a .500 team.

Penalties

Coaches say that it isn’t necessarily the number of penalties that kill a team but rather when they occur that really hurts. A pass interference call is far more harmful than being offside, they’ll say. And that is true. Moreover, 65.8% of the time, the team that had more penalty yards actually won the game, and it did so with a point differential 25% more than those games in which the winning team had less penalty yardage than its opponent.

Penalties therefore, unlike losing the ball and the momentum with a fumble or an interception, played a minor role in determining winning last year. Those top six teams in Hillsborough in 2002, Chamberlain, Jesuit, Jefferson, Durant, Wharton, and East Bay, with a combined record of 52-7, committed roughly the same amount of penalties as the bottom six teams with a record of 8 and 51, Bloomingdale, Plant City, Leto, Robinson, Alonso, and Tampa Catholic. But the top six were able to overcome those penalties.

When Chamberlain (9-1) got flagged for 101 yards against Plant City, they were able to prevail due mainly to their picking off four interceptions, returning one for a touchdown, and returning a kick 90 yards for another score. But the Chiefs were not alone in benefiting from big plays.

Home Runs

The return for a touchdown is to football what the three-run home run is to baseball. Games turn on it because it is a quick strike that stuns the opposition. There were a total of 152 touchdowns scored from kick-off, punt, interception, and fumble returns in 2002 in Tampa Bay. The teams doing the returning won 81.5% of the games in which those returns occurred. The antidote to an effective ground attack and attendant first downs has always been the home run or quick strike. In week 10 of the 2002 season, there were four teams which had more first downs and yet lost. 2/3 of the time the team with the most first downs will win. But in those four games, their opponents had a combined nine touchdowns of 50 yards or more in addition to four returns for touchdowns. Again the three-run home run carried the day.

Running or passing?

The average of the top six teams in Hillsborough County shows they relied more on their running games, passing only 20% of the time while rushing 80%. On the other hand, the six bottom teams saw their ratio of runs to passes as 63% run and 37% pass. East Bay (8-2) ran the ball an astonishing 94% of the time while Leto (0-9) ran but 51%. The Wharton Wildcats (9-1) were the exception to the rule in that they mirrored more closely the run/pass ratio of the lower teams with only 63% of their plays being runs.

There were only 52 games in which the winning team had fewer rushing yards than the losers. But in those games, the winning teams had 27 touchdowns on returns and 22 additional touchdowns on plays of 50 yards or more offsetting their lack of rushing yards. In football, as in NASCAR, nothing beats speed.

Scoring First

Teams scoring first went on to win 77.7% of the time. In only 4 games during the entire season was a team able to come from behind and win when its opponent made the first and second scores of the game. Teams getting the first two scores of a game won an amazing 95.7% of the time. Some exceptions: King scored the first two touchdowns of its game against Tampa Bay Tech and lost, 28-27. Tampa Bay Tech went out in front of Plant by two scores but lost, 34-17. Leto jumped out to a 13-0 lead against Gaither but eventually lost, 28-13. In the Tampa Bay Tech-Plant game, it was, again, a lightning strike that turned the tide when the Plant Panthers, down 14-0 in the first quarter, returned the next kick off 86 yards for a touchdown to ignite their comeback.